|
Ralph Peters is a regular columnist with the New
York Post.
Register here for access to the Post's Online Edition.
 Putin’s
Gas Game
Squashing democracy…
[Ralph
Peters] 1/6/06
Moscow’s
New Year's gift to the world was a frontal assault on democracy:
The Russians turned off Ukraine's natural-gas supplies in mid-winter.
Russia's current czar showed himself willing to freeze free
people to death to demonstrate the Kremlin's resurgent power.
Russian President
Vladimir Putin has never forgiven Ukraine for the Orange Revolution's
rejection of the Kremlin's choice for Kiev's highest office.
Now he's determined to punish Ukraine — and warn its
neighbors to get back into line.
Contributors
Ralph Peters - Contributor
Ralph
Peters is a retired Army officer and the author of 19 books,
as well as of hundreds of essays and articles, written both
under his own name and as Owen Parry. He is a frequent columnist
for the New York Post and other publications. [go to Peters Index] |
But the strategic
implications of Russian bullying reach far beyond the boundaries
of the former USSR. Europe's leaders blithely allowed their
continent to become addicted to "dependable" Russian
energy supplies. Now Putin the neo-imperialist has his paws
on the taps.
Germany is
the most exposed, drawing one-third of its natural gas from
Russia, but over a dozen other states are vulnerable.
Ask not for
whom the gas meter clicks, Hans and Pierre — it clicks
for thee.
And Czar
Vlad the Bad isn't the only villain in this energy pogrom.
With breathtaking cynicism, deposed German Chancellor Gerhard "Backstab
America" Schroeder just accepted a lavish executive position
with a consortium backed by Gazprom, a Kremlin-blessed company,
to lay a pipeline under the Baltic Sea direct to Germany.
It's as if
Bill Clinton went to work as a houseboy for the Saudi royal
family.
Putin-pal
Schroeder worked for years to increase his own country's dependence
on Russian energy. He personally backed the legislation essential
to Gazprom's undersea pipeline (no quid pro quo there, surely).
That pipeline will enhance the Kremlin's regional power so
profoundly that it might well qualify as the great ignored
strategic issue of the decade.
At present,
Russian gas must transit Ukraine and other newly free states — making
it difficult for Moscow to shut off supplies to its former
subjects without losing access to Western markets. (Yesterday,
Russia had to restore some of the cuts to appease alarmed Europeans — who
weren't concerned about Ukraine, but about their own welfare.)
Once Schroeder's
pipeline is in place, Putin and his successors will be able
to cut off energy supplies to the populations Russia recently
held in bondage without discomforting the spoiled citizens
of Old Europe — although Western Europe's turn will come
in time.
Schroeder's
shabby backroom deals with Putin stink of the Molotov-Ribbentrop
Pact (well, the Germans do have a long history of using various
kinds of gas as weapons, so the ex-chancellor would've felt
some natural sympathy with the Russians . . . ).
For now,
though, the crisis is in Ukraine. Pipelines built back when
the Soviets believed in their regime's eternal life run through
defiant democracies today. The most irritating is Ukraine,
a territory Russia's leaders still regard as Kremlin property.
Since independence, Kiev has booked transit fees on gas headed
west. It never saw a hard penny, though: In a paper exchange,
Ukraine got natural gas at reduced rates.
To be fair
to Russia, the old rates priced the gas too low (until the
Orange Revolution, the Kremlin thought it could tug Ukraine
back into the fold). Kiev will have to pay more. Its leaders
understand that.
But Putin
isn't interested in business. He wants power. So the Russians
quadrupled the rate — from about $50 per thousand cubic
meters to $230 — overnight.
President
Viktor Yushchenko's government had asked for a phase-in of
realistic price hikes. But Putin and his courtiers want to
humble Ukraine's elected leader and turn free Ukraine into
a second Belarus — where a dictator literally gets away
with murder.
What else
is behind the cutoff? Putin's cronies want to own Ukraine's
pipeline outright so they can use gas supplies as leverage
on Eastern European democracies without interference from Kiev.
Putin also hopes to influence Ukraine's looming March elections
by literally freezing out the current government.
The Russians
played this one dirty: They not only took Ukraine's natural-gas
allocation out of the pipeline, but — in an inept miscalculation — reduced
the flow of gas intended for Western Europe, then insisted
the Ukrainians were illegally siphoning off supplies meant
for France, Germany, Italy and others. Doing evil, the Kremlin
blamed the victim.
It didn't
work.
When their
own supplies of gas came up short on Monday, the Europeans
were outraged (hit 'em in the wallet, and they get mean). From
left to right, the Euromedia attacked the Kremlin with a nastiness
they usually reserve for American efforts to support democracy.
About to
take his turn chairing the G-8, Putin found himself embarrassed
by the untimely mess he'd made on the Brussels carpet. Now
Czar Vladimir and his boyars are racing to do a clean-up job
(while still trashing Kiev).
The strategic
costs of the Kremlin's latest shenanigans could prove painfully
high if Berlin reconsiders its support of the Baltic pipeline
essential to Russian dreams of regained hegemony. And if there's
any justice left in Europe's shriveled world, Schroeder will
face corruption charges. (Hmm, since the Europeans want Saddam
tried in the Hague, how about trying Schroeder in Kiev? Or
Warsaw?)
Meanwhile,
Russia needs to sell more gas to maintain the illusion of a
successful economy. Dependency works both ways. Even belated
European efforts to diversify the continent's energy sources
would shatter Kremlin fantasies.
This issue
is far bigger than a deadly winter in Ukraine. It's a fight
about Europe's future and Europe's borders, about democracy
versus Russia's new tailored-suit authoritarianism, about freedom
versus a revived Russian empire.
This time
around, the European Union and the United States should stand
solidly shoulder to shoulder — with the people of Ukraine. -one-
Ralph Peters'
latest book is New
Glory: Expanding America's Global Supremacy
This
piece first appeared in the New York Post
copyright 2006 - NY Post
Rush
Limbaugh
§
|
q