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REYNOLDS |
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Obama’s Weird Speech Decision
by John Mark Reynolds [author,
academic] 7/17/08
The Obama campaign is beginning to show signs of hubris. They seem to think that all they need to do to win is show up in November to pick up their mandate. This very attitude has become one of the great hopes for the Republican Party. Recently they made the decision to have the Senator accept the Democrat Party nomination in a giant stadium speech in front of seventy-thousand plus adoring fans.
I don’t get this decision. If it is a mistake, as I suspect, then it is a bad one, since the speech is one of the few moments that Obama can break out to win the big victory he obviously wants.
Contributor
John Mark Reynolds
John
Mark Reynolds is the founder and director of
the Torrey Honors Institute and Associate Professor
of Philosophy at Biola University.His
personal website can be found at www.johnmarkreynolds.com and
his blog can be found at http://scriptoriumdaily.com.
[go to Reynolds index] |
Background
Democrats should win the White House this year. The Republican Party is unpopular with President Bush suffering from historical disapproval. Senator Obama is a refreshing and likable candidate, though he was more so a few months ago.
Three signs, however, point to unexpected problems for Senator Obama.
His lead in the polls, just over five at Real Clear Politics, is steady, but not very great for a popular challenger. It looks likely to drop to less than five, and perhaps even four, when the strange Newsweek poll is dropped. The race will then be getting close to the margin of error. Given Obama’s huge lead in safe Democrat states, close in the national race may equal an electoral college victory for McCain. Piling up more New York and California votes does Senator Obama no good.
Second, last months fund raising did not go well and grumbling is picking up amongst Obama donors about his (sensible) repositioning on major issues. Senator Obama is counting on doubling up McCain on money. What if he doesn’t? The bumbling Dean DNC is not going to bail him out.
While McCain is mired at forty to forty-four percent, it is Obama who has the most fixed image in the public mind. Democrats, even the incumbent Bill Clinton, have not cracked fifty percent in a long time.
Is it possible that everyone who will vote for Obama is already on board? Is everything Obama is doing merely solidifying his high forty percent of the vote? If so, then McCain has a chance to win.
The Obama campaign feels bloated. It insists of running as if the power to make massive television ad buys in the Age of DVR will make all the difference. Most troubling (if you are a fan of the Senator) is the way many Obama workers and moves are tone deaf to the concerns of those not already firmly committed to him. Too many of his videos look and sound worshipful. The idea of having his own “seal” was silly.
If we assume the Senator is not himself part of his own cult of personality (which I do), he still appears surrounded by one. This prevents him from getting hard information on how his campaign is being perceived by the the middle of the country. He has not closed the deal with half the population. If he wants to get a mandate for change, then he needs a better campaign than he is running.
The Big Speech
The Obama campaign expects to win, but wants a Big Win. They don’t want a Clinton or W size win. They want to be Reagan on the left. As a result, they are throwing a long bomb by moving one of the campaigns Big Moments to an unprecedented site: a giant stadium.
This is a dumb, indeed an epically, what-were-they-thinking, don’t-start-a-land-war-in-Asia, kind of foolish idea.
What is the upside?
Everyone knows that Senator Obama gives a great speech. Let him do it. Now his great speech, which he is nearly certain to give, faces the chance of being marred by a bad decision.
The campaign has foolishly turned part of the focus from the speaker to the audience. This is all risk with no reward. This is true even if, as is most likely, everything goes well. He can count of an adoring mainstream press account, but that would have been true regardless of the venue. How can Senator Obama be more adored after a speech than he has been?
Senator Obama’s speech on race powerfully moved me, because it was disciplined, well argued, and directed to the viewer. He was not catering to “those present.” This is something Reagan (with his television and movie training) understood, but I am not sure Senator Obama always does.
The crowd itself, therefore, is all risk and no reward. It is a bad, very bad, decision, therefore, even if it works out.
If the crowd is well behaved, he has gained little. We all know he is rock star.
If the stadium does not fill, he looks foolish.
If the crowd is badly behaved, he has lost one of his best campaign moments to gain nothing.
When one considers the sort of far-left activist (or Republican activists trying to look like far-left activists) likely to show up at such a free event, it should give planners pause.
The size of the audience (if it is large) may also throw Senator Obama off his game.
Television, which is the way most of us will see the speech, is a “cool medium.” Shouting or barnstorming as a speaker might work well to the stadium crowd, but is a disaster on television.
A great speaker like Senator Obama will face the great temptation to whip up his audience. If he speaks to the seventy-five thousand there, he risks looking too manic for the millions watching at home. It will require incredible discipline not to do so . . . and several times on television (as he ad libbed and extended his remarks to the delight of the crowd), I have watched Senator Obama weaken his powerful delivery.
What will happen to the speaker in the exuberance of this historic victory before a huge and adoring crowd?
Senator Obama does not need any props to be a great speaker. Adding all these imperial trappings cannot help him.
Finally, the image of politicians addressing big stadiums of adoring fans is not a good one historically. Senator Obama is not well served by the visual. It smacks of petty dictators and not leaders of republics. In the context of accepting a nomination, already a dangerously cult-like event for any nominee so full of fatuous praise of the Great Man, the Senator risks going too far.
I strongly suspect that the Obama campaign will think about this and find a reason (television?) to back out of this ill considered decision. If not, then the McCain camp should thank heaven that their foe has decided to weaken his strongest campaign moment. ExileStreet
copyright
2008 John Mark Reynolds
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